The Dragon's Back

No – not the football team. They’re already near the bottom of the table. I mean the inflation dragon.

I’ve been revisiting my older Flame articles because it feels like we’re coming full circle. Just as prices were beginning to stabilise, global tensions – particularly the conflict involving Iran – look set to breathe fire back into inflation. In the space of a month, diesel costs have nearly doubled, and there’s little sign of them levelling out. That kind of increase doesn’t stay at the bowser – it flows through to food, transport and, inevitably, interest rates.

Those earlier articles all circled around one idea: resilience. It’s a word that’s grown in meaning as the world becomes less predictable. Whether it’s how we raise our kids or build our homes, resilience – the big “R” – has trumped sustainability.

Speaking of trumped – back then, I was writing about Donald Trump in the context of trade wars and their knock-on effects for construction here in Australia. I didn’t expect those themes to resurface quite so literally – nor alongside renewed instability in the Middle East. Yet here we are again, dealing with geopolitical uncertainty and climate pressures, making those earlier reflections feel like I’m Punxsutawney Phil in Groundhog Day.

The good news is that here in the Illawarra, we’re relatively well placed to absorb some of these shocks. Thanks to Saul Griffith’s electrification movement, households have more pathways to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Local initiatives like Illawarra Crop Swap, the food co-op, and growers such as Pope’s Produce are helping shorten supply chains and keep food production closer to home.

Meanwhile, advocacy groups like Illawarra Bicycle Users Group, continue to improve cycleways, making it easier to swap cars for bikes. I would love to follow up with a thanks to the new Mariyung trains operating on the Illawarra line  – but, alas that’s a topic for another article!

During the last inflation spike, the construction industry took a hit. Projects stalled, and many builders were caught out by fixed-price contracts as material costs surged. This time, rising fuel prices will again push up costs – but the bigger question is supply. Previously, it was global demand and a touch of local hoarding – timber and insulation became the construction industry’s version of toilet paper.

Now, supply chains are still functioning, though not without friction. Disruptions around key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz could create delays and added costs. Materials like timber and insulation should remain available – but “should” is me wearing my optimism hat.

Ultimately, resilience isn’t just about systems or supply chains – it’s about people. Australians have shown a remarkable ability to come together in tough times. 

So consider this a gentle reminder: keep electrifying what you can, plant that veggie patch, and support local. It all adds up.